North America getting its polar vortex on. (NASA)

In a post about how very badly NOAA did not predict our frigid winter, the Washington Post’s excellent Capital Weather Gang concludes:

The bottom line is that – irrespective of the source – seasonal forecasting is a relatively young, immature science and should be viewed with some skepticism.

Let me translate for those of you unfamiliar with climatologist speak:  “Much past 10 days out and we have no idea what the Hell is going on.

Given the incredible complexity of interrelated feedback loops, both positive and negative, it takes a special kind of hubris to think that one can predict what our climate will be doing a century from now.

Advertisements